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US stock futures pointed to a muted open on Tuesday as markets assessed the latest batch of earnings and continued to gauge risks that uncertain economic policy may have on corporate returns. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were flat, while those for the Dow were 100 points higher. Policy uncertainty and the risk of aggressive tariffs on key trading partners drove UPS to refrain from giving a full-year outlook, while GM futures were lower after the firm cancelled its share buyback and pulled its outlook due to the possibility of tariffs. Also on the earnings front, Coca Cola edged higher after deliver earnings were loosely in line with expectations, while tech was mixed ahead of results by Microsoft and Meta tomorrow.  The concerns of trade barriers were also reflected in the latest round of economic data. The US posted its highest deficit in history in March as firms attempted to front-load imports from foreign countries.

US Futures Point to Muted Open

U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.5% month-over-month to $908 billion in March 2025, matching February’s revised gain but falling slightly short of market expectations for a 0.7% increase, according to advance estimates. Durable goods inventories grew by 0.5%, following a 0.4% rise in the previous month, while inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.4%, easing from a 0.7% increase in February. On a yearly basis, wholesale inventories went up by 2.3% in March.

US Wholesale Inventory Growth Below Forecasts

The US trade deficit in goods widened sharply to $162 billion in March of 2025, the widest on record, and sharply above the market consensus of a $146 billion gap as the aggressive reciprocal tariff package signaled by the US government drove domestic firms to front-load their imports, according to a preliminary estimate. Imports of goods surged by 30.8% annually to $342.7 billion as President Trump's signal of tariffs on key trading partners, followed by the prompt 90-day delay of said tariff measures, drove manufacturers to expedite orders to stock warehouses before the end of the 90-day tariff reprieve. Imports surged for consumer goods (55.5% to $102.8 billion), industrial supplies (37.8% to $74.6 billion), and capital goods (22.2% to $92.8 billion). In turn, exports rose by a softer 6.8% to $180.8 billion.

US Trade Deficit Surges to Record High

Sugar futures have been easing, trading just below 18 cents per pound,  their lowest since April 21, as markets weighed expectations of a bumpy production season in Brazil and signs of weakening demand. State agricultural agency Conab said that Brazil's sugar production is expected to hit a record high of 45.9 million metric tons in 2025/26, up 4% from the previous season, despite a 2% drop in local sugarcane crop.

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